I'm committing early, for maximum credit when my predictions bear fruit.
- Andy Schleck
I'm not convinced Hesjedahl, while he was strong enough to barely win the Giro, is fast enough in time trials to win this Tour, and lacks the explosiveness or superior aerobic power on climbs to gain back the time there.
DeGendt was stronger at the end of the Giro, though, and he was faster in the time trial despite an epic effort the day before. That's a good sign for the Tour. He's also relatively young, so is still improving and discovering his abilities.
And forget about Frandy. Still, you can't ignore their prior success, so I don't see them dropping further than fifth.
Wiggins is possessed this year: a man on a mission. If he doesn't crash, I think he's the strong favorite. Evans looks good but is getting a bit old, and will have a hard time holding off a Wiggins who can avoid bad luck.