Tour de France: final (extended) picks

A few weeks ago I posted Tour de France picks. This is my last chance to update them before the big show rolls in Liege. Here's a good start list if you need to know who the contenders are.

First and second I see no reason to change: Wiggins and Evans are the class of the crowd. Last year, Evans was at 34 one of the oldest winners in history. If he were to win this year, he'd be exceeded only by irmin Lambot, who won when he was 36 in 1922 (Wikipedia). I think Evans loses a bit this year, while Wiggins finally figured out his preparation, spending solid blocks on Tenerif with focused climbing and time trial work. Wiggins also has superb teammates backing his up in Froome and Rodgers.

I had De Gendt third but he's not racing, so Hesjedal gets the promotion. He's not raced since winning the Giro, so he has a good chance of having sufficiently recovered to put in a good effort in France.

I had Andy Schleck next, but of course Andy won't be there, so he's out. And Frank showed strength in Switzerland, but his relationship with Team Radioshack is terrible right now. Radioshack is not in a good place; Frank will not rank this high.

Instead: Robert Gesink. Gesink was all-around impressive at the Tour of California, and he's young enough to be on an upward slope. He can climb and time trial, and time trailing is key this year.

I'll slot Wiggins' teammate Froome next. He was second at the Vuelta last year behind that enigma, Juan José Cobo. He'll be supporting Wiggins here but still history has shown support guys can still rank highly, especially with so much emphasis on time trials where it's each rider for himself.

Then I'll go with a guy who's probably a dark horse to most English-speaking fans: Jurgen Van den Broeck. He's another rider on the way up and it's a mistake to pick only grizzled veterans.

Here's where it gets really crowded, where there's more than ten guys who I want to pick for the top 10. But I'll start with Vincenzo Nibali, of Liquigas. He won the Vuelta two years ago so he should be ready to step up to the big stage. But I've got this thing about Italians: they never seem to be able to win in France.

Next up: Pierre Rolland of Europcar. He rode so strongly last year behind team leader Voeckler. Last year Voeckler was super-strong all year before the Tour, while this year he's been battling knee problems. The slower start may mean Voeckler is fresher, but I'm going to stick with his younger teammate.

There has to be a spot here for Frank Schleck, if he manages to finish the race. I can't ignore how well he rode in Switzerland. The time trials don't work to his favor, but he was climbing well, and has always done fairly well in France. I really doubt the unity of his team, however.

Then I'll go with another Sky rider: Rodgers. He was 2nd at Dauphine behind his team leader Wiggins and with his experience he's going to work he can't be too far down in France.

I've been focusing a lot on Sky, but Garmin's also a strong team, and Daniel Martin has been showing a lot of potential for several years now. I'll put him next.

I'll toss in Chris Horner and Tom Danielson next, just because I think they'll be in there somewhere.

I said Thomas Voeckler was a bit off this year, but I don't want to completely ignore him, so he goes next.

Levi's past his prime, but he showed some impressive form at Tour of California considering he'd broken his leg, then came back to ride well at Switzerland. I'll put him next.

Then I'll add Denis Menchov, just because he always seems to hang in there somewhere. Then Samuel Sanchez, who showed signs of strength in Italy, even if he's also getting close to the end of his career.

Tejay Van Garderen will behelping Cadel Evans. I'll put him next.

Late addition: I realize I have to mention Nicolas Roche in here somewhere. So I'll stick him next, after Tejay. And to make it an even 20, Andreas Klöden.

So what I have. You may chuckle, but when the GC comes out exactly as I'm writing it here, I'll get the last laugh:

  1. Bradley "Sideburns" Wiggins
  2. Cadel Evans
  3. Ryder Hesjedal
  4. Robert Gesink
  5. Chris Froome
  6. Jurgen Van den Broeck
  7. Vincenzo Nibali
  8. Pierre Roland
  9. Frank Schleck
  10. Michael Rodgers
  11. Daniel Martin
  12. Chris Horner
  13. Tom Danielson
  14. Thomas Voeckler
  15. Levi Leipheimer
  16. Denis Menchov
  17. Samuel Sánchez
  18. Tejay Van Garderen
  19. Nicolas Roche
  20. Andreas Klöden

Comments

TCM said…
Good predictions, except Levi and Menchov at 15 and 16... I think they will be more like 5 and 6... but at the end of the day, I guess it's all about yellow... and i really hope Wiggins has good luck!

A team like Radioshack should target stage wins (like today) and the polka-dot jersey for either Schleck or Horner.
June 30, 2012 at 4:07 PM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Marin Avenue (Berkeley)

Image
On Saturday, I got an email from Tim telling letting me know that Murphy's Spring Classics was going to start up Marin Ave. I'd missed that. Murphy announces his courses the day before, and indeed it was already well into the night before when the course announcement went out. I'd skipped over the details, jumping straight to middle and end games. Marin? I laughed at the irony, because not long before when he'd told me he was choosing to repeat the Nifty Twn Fifty which we'd done together last year versus selecting Murphy Mack's Stage Mullett two-day, I responded I didn't think I had it in me to ride Marin Ave two years in succession. Well, so much for that. I was committed, so I went downstairs to swap my 11-26 cassette for my Recon 12-27. The name is easily overlooked: "Marin Ave" fails to strike the same impression as, for example, "Redwood Gulch" or "China Grade". But among those in the know, Marin Ave is infamous i...
Read more

hummingbird feeder physics

Image
I couldn't figure out how the hummingbird feeder worked. Why didn't it overflow? Forces need to balance, of course. Neglecting surface tension, there liquid level is higher in the inner reservoir than in the feeding chamber, so there must be a corresponding pressure difference. Suppose the pressure in the inner chamber were zero. Then the column height difference would need to be atmospheric pressure / (density of liquid × gravity). But this is over 9 meters! Obviously the height difference is only approximately 1% of this. So the pressure difference inside versus outside is only approximately 1%. The inside is only slightly below atmosphere. So air is getting in. How? Does it diffuse through the liquid? If this were the dominant mechanism, it wouldn't take long for the pressure inside to go from 99% to 99.3%, for example, which should be plenty to push the column of liquid down in the inside chamber and thus push liquid out through the holes. It would over...
Read more

Gallium Pro geometry

Image
On Caltrain yesterday, I was surprised to see among the usual set of commuting bikes a SRAM Red-equipped Argon Gallium Pro. The bike immediately stole your attention. The design was one which has been trending: clear-coated carbon with plenty of text detail so the viewer is sure to realize he's gazing upon the result of advanced, proprietary engineering and not at yet another paint job on the same old OEM frames being pumped out of the same old Taiwanese factories. But it worked: the bottom bracket area was huge, the downtube a large-diameter "inverted Kamm tail" design seemingly designed to maximize wind resistance, the top tube a broad, eccentric shape which screamed "vertically compliant yet torsionally stiff". All it lacked were the pencil-think seat stays Cervelo popularized, but this was a machine designed for stiffness over anything else. It seemed dramatic overkill, since the bike was small (the Argon "XS" I suspect). There wasn't muc...
Read more