Caltrain 2030 ridership projections 11 years pessimistic
In 2009, Caltrain projected 72 thousand boardings by 2030 , a rate of annual increase of 2.3%. These projections are obviously extremely important, since capacity increases need to be planned well in advance. Indeed, as was predicted by essentially all rational observers at the time, the ridership has exploded far in excess of that "extremely conservative" schedule, Ridership survey reports are available here . Here's the annual ridership: At the rate ridership has been increasing it would hit 72 thousand not in 2030, but rather in 2019: A key thing, though, is that ridership will not increase at this rate. There simply is not the capacity. At some point trains get so full that the experience of riding on the train is worse for a sufficient number of passengers than the experience of driving, or the experience of working from home, or the experience of moving closer to work, or the experience of changing jobs closer to home, or the experience of moving to Portl...