Monday, August 11, 2008

Team results after the women's road race, including the men's race, where results go 30 deep, starting with 150 points for first, down to 1 point for 30th. I extended it to 30th due to the strong presence of third-tier cycling nations in the men's RR results in the 21-30 positions, and surely these are still quality placings on this selective course in such challenging conditions. Team USA, I am sure, hopes to improve during the time trials over the next two days.
pl  team         #  points
1 Italy 4 203
2 Spain 3 180
3 Britain 2 158
4 Sweden 3 119
5 Switzerland 3 115
6 Russia 3 85
7 Denmark 3 67
8 Austria 2 62
9 France 4 59
10 Netherlands 2 57
11 Australia 3 53
12 Lithuania 4 51
13 Luxembourg 1 42
13 Poland 2 42
15 USA 3 41
16 Canada 2 38
17 Colombia 1 30
18 Belgium 1 27
19 Kazakhstan 1 22
20 Germany 2 21
21 China 1 15
22 Brazil 1 11
23 Ukraine 1 9
23 Namibia 1 9
25 Norway 1 5
25 Croatia 1 5
27 South Africa 1 4
28 New Zealand 1 3
28 Portugal 1 3
30 Estonia 1 1
30 Venezuela 1 1

The bike rankings will be tougher, as I don't know by inspection the bikes ridden by many of the non-Webcor women. I'd need to do some research for that. But nice result for Boardman Cycles! Interesting to see Nicole Cooke switch from Dura-Ace to SRAM Red during the year.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Olympic RR: It's all about the bike

The Olympic Road Race shares an otherwise rare trait with the World Championships in that, as a professional bike race, members of the same team don't each ride the same bike. National teams are typically composed of members of more than one trade team, where riders use the bikes assigned by their trade teams. So an analysis of results by bike goes beyond an analysis of teams.


I used the following formula for points for a placing, rounding to the nearest integer:
points = 21 - place + 80 [ exp([1 - place] / 2] - exp(-10) ]
In other words, for places 1 - 20: 100,68,47,35,27,22,18,15,13,12,11,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1


The results: despite missing out on the gold and silver, Cervelo takes the top honors over Orbea. With 4 Orbea-sponsored Webcor/Alto Velo women in the women's race, Orbea has a good chance to take the road overall, but Cervelo sponsors the powerful Cervelo-Life Force team including Team USA's top rider Kristen Armstrong, so could well hold onto its top place. Of course, if I add in the time trial results, all bets are off, but it looks good for Cervelo, which has a number of excellent time trialists in both the men's and women's fields.


Anyway, enough... here's the data:
















#bikepoints
1Cervelo118
2Orbea100
3Specialized71
4Giant35
5Ridley21
6De Rosa18
7Colnago12
8Trek11
9Pinarello10
10Time7
11FRW5
12Felt4
13Cannondale1




Of course, I could apply this same formula to teams. However, this is enough for now.